Skrevet av Emne: Ny viktig forskning om solens betydning for klimaet  (Lest 2395 ganger)

Utlogget Telehiv

  • Seniormedlem
  • ****
  • Innlegg: 1785
Ny viktig forskning om solens betydning for klimaet
« på: Januar 26, 2012, 12:06:50 pm »
IPCC har som kjent i over 10 år vist en utpreget evne til å overse viktig forskning om solens betydning for klimaet, dvs. forskning som ikke direkte bekrefter AGW/CO2-hypotesen, men snarere bidrar til å så tvil om mye av forutsetningene for den samme hypotesen.

Her er en liste med studier som kan rette opp litt av dette informasjonsunderskuddet som IPCC har gjort seg skyldig i:

1. Variations in tree ring stable isotope records from northern Finland and their possible connection to solar activity; Ogurtsov et al, 2010.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 73, Issues 2–3, February 2011, Pages 383-387.
Maxim Ogurtsov, Eloni Sonninen, Emmi Hilasvuori, Igor Koudriavtsev, Valentin Dergachev, Högne Jungner   

bruk link her:
Stikkord: "Statistical analysis of the carbon and oxygen stable isotope records reveals variations in the periods around 100, 11 and 3 years. A century scale connection between the 13C/12C record and solar activity is most evident.”

2. A possible solar pacemaker for Holocene fluctuations of a salt-marsh in southern Italy; Di Rita, 2011
Quaternary International (December 2011) doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.11.030 Key: citeulike:10117130

This study is aimed at verifying the possible influence of solar activity on the coastal vegetation development in the Tavoliere Plain (south Adriatic region, Italy) between 6350 and 4000 cal BP, when regular fluctuations of halophilic vegetation are recorded by pollen. A wavelet analysis, applied to the percentage values of glasswort vegetation is consistent with periodicities of solar activity and other palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimate proxies in the literature. A comparison of salt-marsh pollen indicators (Salicornia type and Ruppia maritima) with the 10Be dataset from the Greenland ice core GISP2, on the basis of their independent chronologies, reveals a strong visual correlation, indicating that the minima of salt-marsh percentages match minima in the 10Be curve, corresponding to solar activity maxima, associated with warm and arid phases at the middle latitudes. The Tavoliere salt-marsh appears to have contracted during the arid/warm phases associated to maxima of solar activity and to have expanded during the wet/cold phases of solar minima. This coastal area, characterized by a very flat topography and arid climate, appears to have been very sensitive to even minor hydrological and climate changes. Changes of solar activity, determining extensive environmental transformations, were also possibly responsible for the abandonment of the human coastal settlements of one of the most important Neolithic archaeological districts of Italy.

Stikkord: "The chronological correspondence between the ages of saltmarsh vegetation reductions and the minimum concentration values of 10Be in the GISP2 ice core supports the hypothesis that important fluctuations in the extent of the salt-marsh in the coastal Tavoliere plain are related to variations of solar activity.”[/i]

3. Solar and volcanic fingerprints in tree-ring chronologies over the past 2000 years; Breitenmoser et al, 2012
Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland

The Sun is the main driver of Earth’s climate, yet the Sun’s role in forcing decadal-to-centennial climate variations has remained controversial, especially in the context of understanding contributions of natural climate forcings to continuing global warming. To properly address long-term fingerprints of solar forcing on climate, long-term, very high-resolution, globally distributed climate proxy records are necessary. In this study we compile and evaluate a near global collection of annually-resolved tree-ring-based climate proxies spanning the past two millennia. We statistically assess these records in both the time and frequency domains for solar forcing (i.e. Total Solar Irradiance; TSI) and climate variability 1
with emphasis on centennial time scales. Analyses in the frequency domain indicate significant periodicities in the 208-year frequency band, corresponding to the DeVries cycle of solar activity. Additionally, results from superposed epoch analysis (SEA) point toward a possible solar contribution in the temperature and precipitation series. However, solar-climate associations remain weak, with for example no clear linkage distinguishable in the southwestern United States drought records at centennial time scales. Other forcing factors, namely volcanic activity, appear to mask the solar signal in space and time. To investigate this hypothesis, we attempted to extract volcanic signals from the temperature proxies using a statistical modelling approach. Wavelet analysis of the volcanic contribution reveals significant periodicities near the DeVries frequency during the Little Ice Age (LIA). This remarkable and coincidental superposition of the signals makes it very difficult to separate volcanic and solar forcing during the LIA. Nevertheless, the “volcano free” temperature records show significant periodicities near the DeVries periodicity during the entire past 1500 years, further pointing to solar mechanisms and emphasising the need for solar related studies in the absence of strong multi-decadal volcanic forcing.
Key Words: TSI; Climate variability; Tree-ring proxies; DeVries solar cycle; Volcanic activity; Past two millennia

Stikkord: Results from wavelet analysis and SEA reveal significant periodicities near the solar DeVries frequency in the volcanic and residual ‘volcano free’ contributions during the LIA, making a clear separation of the solar and volcanic forcing signals difficult. Nevertheless, the ‘volcano free’ temperatures show significant periodicities near the DeVries frequency during the entire past 1500 years, pointing to a solar imprint on global climate.

4. Holocene hydrological changes in south-western Mediterranean as recorded by lake-level fluctuations at Lago Preola, a coastal lake in southern Sicily, Italy; Magny et al, 2011

This paper presents a high-resolution lake-level record for the Holocene at Lago Preola (Sicily, southern
Italy) based on a specific sedimentological approach, with a chronology derived from AMS radiocarbon
dates. It gives evidence of three major successive palaeohydrological periods, with (1) a pronounced
dryness during the early Holocene until ca 10300 cal BP, (2) a highstand from ca 10300 to 4500 cal BP,
and (3) a marked lowstand from 4500 cal BP to present. Large amplitude lake-level fluctuations characterise
two transition phases at ca 10300e9000 and 6400e4500 cal BP. Period 2 was interrupted
between 8300 and 7000 cal BP by a dry phase that was punctuated to ca 7300 cal BP by the deposition of
a tephra from neighbouring Pantelleria Island. Comparisons of the Preola record with other palaeohydrological
records along northesouth and westeeast transects in the Mediterranean show contrasting
patterns of hydrological changes: north (south) of around 40N latitude, the records highlight
a mid-Holocene period characterised by lake-level minima (maxima). Humid mid-Holocene conditions
over the Mediterranean south of 40N were probably linked to a strong weakening of the Hadley cell
circulation and of monsoon winds. We suggest that the maximum of humidity in the Mediterranean
during the mid-Holocene was characterised by humid winters to the north of 40N and humid summers
to the south. On a multi-centennial scale, the high-resolution palaeohydrological reconstructions in the
central Mediterranean area reveal a strong climate reversal around 4500e4000 cal BP, with contrasting
changes in the hydrological cycle. In addition to seasonal and inter-hemispherical changes related to
orbital forcing, this major oscillation might be related to non-linear responses of the climatic system to
the gradual decrease in summer insolation at northern latitudes. Another major climate oscillation
around 7500e7000 cal BP may have resulted from the combined effects of (1) a strong rate of change in
insolation, and (2) variations in solar activity. Finally, comparisons of the Preola lake-level record with
Sicilian pollen records suggest a strong influence of moisture availability on vegetation development in
Sicily. Very dry early Holocene conditions probably prevented the expansion of coastal evergreen forests,
while decreasing moisture availability since the onset of the late Holocene may have exacerbated effects
of intensive land-use.

Stikkord: This major oscillation may be related to a non-linear response of the climatic system to the gradual decrease in insolation, in addition to seasonal and inter-hemispherical changes in insolation. Another major climate oscillation around 7500 – 7000 cal BP may have resulted from combined effects of a strong rate of change in insolation and of variations in solar activity.”

5. Variations in climate parameters at time intervals from hundreds to tens of millions of years in the past and its relation to solar activity; Raspopov et al, 2010

Stikkord: Our analysis of 200-year climatic oscillations in modern times and also data of other researchers referred to above suggest that these climatic oscillations can be attributed to solar forcing. The results obtained in our study for climatic variations millions of years ago indicate, in our opinion, that the 200- year solar cycle exerted a strong influence on climate parameters at those time intervals as well.”

6. Climate patterns in north central China during the last 1800 yr and their possible driving force; Tan et al, 2011.
L. Tan1, Y. Cai1,2, Z. An1, L. Yi3, H. Zhang1, and S. Qin1
1 State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, CAS, Xi'an, 710075, China
2 Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China
3 Key Laboratory of Marine Sedimentology and Environmental Geology, First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, Qingdao, 266061, China

We synthesized high-resolution precisely-dated stalagmite records and historical document records from north central China to reconstruct a decadal resolution precipitation record during the last 1800 years (190–1980 AD). The synthesized precipitation record shows coincident variations and significant positive correlations with the temperature reconstructions on centennial- to multidecadal-scale, suggesting warm-humid/cool-dry was the main climate pattern in north central China over the past 1800 years. Solar activity may be the dominant force that drove the same-phase variations of the temperature and precipitation in north central China.

Stikkord: Solar activity may be the dominant force that drove the same-phase variations of the temperature and precipitation in north central China.

7. Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of sunspot numbers and river flow fluctuations; Hajian, 2010
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 389, Issue 21, 1 November 2010, Pages 4942-4957
S. Hajian, M. Sadegh Movahed

Abstract (her må dere gå til linken for å få ut korrekte spesialtegn i teksten):
We use the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) to investigate the influence of sun activity represented by sunspot numbers on one of the climate indicators, specifically rivers, represented by river flow fluctuation for Daugava, Holston, Nolichucky and French Broad rivers. The Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DXA) shows that there exist some crossovers in the cross-correlation fluctuation function versus time scale of the river flow and sunspot series. One of these crossovers corresponds to the well-known cycle of solar activity demonstrating a universal property of the mentioned rivers. The scaling exponent given by DCCA for original series at intermediate time scale, $(12-24)\leq s\leq 130$ months, is $\lambda = 1.17\pm0.04$ which is almost similar for all underlying rivers at $1\sigma$confidence interval showing the second universal behavior of river runoffs. To remove the sinusoidal trends embedded in data sets, we apply the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method. Our results show that there exists a long-range cross-correlation between the sunspot numbers and the underlying streamflow records. The magnitude of the scaling exponent and the corresponding cross-correlation exponent are $\lambda\in (0.76, 0.85)$ and $\gamma_{\times}\in(0.30, 0.48)$, respectively. Different values for scaling and cross-correlation exponents may be related to local and external factors such as topography, drainage network morphology, human activity and so on. Multifractal cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that all underlying fluctuations have almost weak multifractal nature which is also a universal property for data series. In addition the empirical relation between scaling exponent derived by DCCA and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), $ \lambda\approx(h_{\rm sun} + h_{\rm river})/2$ is confirmed
Stikkord: Our results show that there exists a long-range cross-correlation between the sunspot numbers and the underlying streamflow records.”

Denne listingen er gjort med startstøtte fra:
« Siste redigering: Januar 26, 2012, 14:02:53 pm av Telehiv »
Vitenskapen kan av og til risikere å bli innhentet av sannheten

Utlogget Jostemikk

  • Administrator
  • Fingrene mine er klistra til klimatastaturet
  • *****
  • Innlegg: 7136
  • Ondskapens grobunn er dårskap og troskyldighet
Sv: Ny viktig forskning om solens betydning for klimaet
« Svar #1 på: Januar 26, 2012, 12:40:39 pm »
Takk for denne omfattende listingen av viktig forskning, Tele! Godt å ha for å forsøke å skaffe seg bedre forståelse om det som EGENTLIG foregår i klimasystemet vårt, og like viktig som et sted å finne referanser under diverse ;)
Ja heldigvis flere der ser galskapen; men stadig alt for få.
Dertil kommer desværre de der ikke vil se, hva de ser.


Utlogget Amatør1

  • Administrator
  • Superhelt!
  • *****
  • Innlegg: 3848
  • If you've seen one tree, you've seen Yamal
Sv: Ny viktig forskning om solens betydning for klimaet
« Svar #2 på: Januar 26, 2012, 20:50:28 pm »
Fine greier, da passer også denne, vil jeg tro

Long-term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields
Matthew J. Penn
William Livingston

"Independent of the normal solar cycle, a decrease in the sunspot magnetic field strength has been observed using the Zeeman-split 1564.8nm Fe I spectral line at the NSO Kitt Peak McMath-Pierce telescope. Corresponding changes in sunspot brightness and the strength of molecular absorption lines were also seen. This trend was seen to continue in observations of the first sunspots of the new solar Cycle 24, and extrapolating a linear fit to this trend would lead to only half the number of spots in Cycle 24 compared to Cycle 23, and imply virtually no sunspots in Cycle 25.
We examined synoptic observations from the NSO Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope and initially (with 4000 spots) found a change in sunspot brightness which roughly agreed with the infrared observations. A more detailed examination (with 13,000 spots) of both spot brightness and line-of-sight magnetic flux reveals that the relationship of the sunspot magnetic fields with spot brightness and size remain constant during the solar cycle. There are only small temporal variations in the spot brightness, size, and line-of-sight flux seen in this larger sample. Because of the apparent disagreement between the two data sets, we discuss how the infrared spectral line provides a uniquely direct measurement of the magnetic fields in sunspots."

It is easier to lie to someone than to convince them, that they have been lied to