Ny studie på arktisk sjøis 1150-1983: Sterk korrelasjon med solsyklus

[Telehiv]

CO2-alarmistene i IPCC-miljøet som notorisk prøver å nedskrive solsyklusenes betydning for historiske klimamønstre for å  holde liv i sin kollapsende AGW/CO2-hypotese får nå en ny og sviende smekk på fingrene:

En ny studie publisert av Danske Meteorologiske Institut med tittelen "Multi-decadal variation of the East Greenland Sea-Ice Extent: AD 1500-2000" (Knud Lassen og Peter Thejll) finner en oppsiktsvekkende høy korrelasjon (R=0.67) mellom solaktiviteten og arktisk havklima.

Funnene er basert på studier av arktiske sjøisobservasjoner de siste 500 år og solsykluslengde (som et mål for solaktiviteten), med høy statistisk signifikans (0.5 % sannsynlighet for tilfeldig korrelasjon).

Denne korrelasjons- og signifikanstyngden, så sant den kan forsvares videre (tvil ikke på at IPCC-håndlangerne i Real Climate-miljøet o.a. kommer til å lyve som aldri før for å få svertet arbeidet!), vil være nådeløst avslørende overfor IPCCs ulike forsøk på å avvise disse sammenhengene.

Disse funnene er for øvrig ikke noe nytt, det er bare det at "konsensus-klimamakta" i årevis har lagt ned mye arbeid i å fortie og latterliggjøre en rekke tilsvarende funn tidligere. Dette arbeidet føyer seg derfor inn i en rekke forutgående arbeider som har funnet at arktisk sjøisutstrekning kontrolleres av solaktiviteten, og tilhørende hav- og atmosfæreoscillasjoner med sine vind- og stormbilder - og ikke CO2.

ET KVIKT SAMMENDRAG AV TEMA OG KONKLUSJONER

I abstraktet sier forskerne (mine understrekinger):

"The extent of ice in the North Atlantic varies in time with time scales stretching to centennial, and the cause of these variations is discussed. We consider the Koch ice index which describes the amount of ice sighted from Iceland, in the period 1150 to 1983 AD. This measure of ice extent is a non-linear and curtailed measure of the amount of ice in the Greenland Sea, but gives an overall view of the amounts of ice there through more than 800 years. The length of the series allows insight into the natural variability of ice extent and this understanding can be used to evaluate modern-day variations. Thus we find that the recently reported retreat of the ice in the Greenland Sea  may be related to the termination of the so-called Little Ice Age in the early twentieth century. We also look at the approximately 80 year variability of the Koch [sea ice] index and compare it to the similar periodicity found in the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.

Conclusion:
In view of the large significance observed we suggest that the correlation of 0.67, between multi-decadal modes in the Koch ice index and the solar cycle length, is indicative of a relationship not due to chance. The multi-decadal modes still represent only a small fraction of the total variance in the ice series, which illustrates that while the kind of solar activity characterised by the variable length of the solar cycle may cause some of the variability seen in the ice series, the majority is caused by other factors.

Whereas the multi-decal mode may be a result of varying solar activity, the cause of the slowly varying mode is not directly seen from the data presented here. Obviously, it must be due to a natural variation of the climate. A variation of similar shape may be recognised in the solar cycle length (Figure 1.5), but it has not been possible from the present data to deduce a correlation that is significant. Nevertheless, the similarity of the variation of the ice export through the Fram Strait and the smoothed variation of the solar cycle length shown in Figure 1.7 speaks in favour of the assumption that the solar cycle variation may include both natural modes. This conclusion is in accordance with the finding by Bond et al., 2001 (their Figure 2) that a persistent series of solar influenced millennial-scale variations, which include the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, reflect a baseline of the centennial-scale cycles. (her er altså ett av flere eksempler på forutgående arbeider som har pekt i samme retning, men som ikke ønskes trukket fram av IPCC).

Og så kommer den virkelig "kjetterske" sammenfatningen, som står i skrikende kontrast til det "offisielle" IPCC-synet, som fremdeles klamrer seg til ideen om at det hele skyldes menneskeskapte CO2-utslipp, dvs. at naturlige årsaker da er av marginal betydning:

The 'low frequency oscillation' that dominated the ice export through the Fram Strait as well as the extension of the sea-ice in the Greenland Sea and Davis Strait in the twentieth century may therefore be regarded as part of a pattern that has existed through at least four centuries. The pattern is a natural feature, related to varying solar activity. The considerations of the impact of natural sources of variability on arctic ice extent are of relevance for concerns that the current withdrawal of ice may entirely be due to human activity. Apparently, a considerable fraction of the current withdrawal could be a natural occurrence."

Hele paperet kan leses her: http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr05-02.pdf

Jeg håper dette arbeidet skaper fruktbar debatt videre i de sentrale klimaforskningsmiljøene og ikke bare blir enda et arbeid IPCC "glemmer" å inkludere i sin neste rapport?


PS: ANDRE STUDIER SOM ER AV RELEVANS

Jeg nevnte at det er gjort en rekke andre studier som peker i samme retning. I kommentarspalten under WUWTs omtale av saken siste døgnet fant jeg et interessant og informativt innspill av William Astley med noen nyttige litteraturhenvisninger:   

"The solar magnetic cycle variation appears to cause planetary climate change by modulating the amount of planetary cloud cover. The observed warming in the last 70 years and in the paleo climatic record is the strongest in high latitude Northern regions although there is warming observed in both hemispheres in the last 70 years and in the past. The paleo climate record shows the warming cycle has always been followed by cooling when the sun enters a Maunder minimum.

The warmists have ignored the fact that the regional pattern of warming in the last 70 years cannot be explained by the CO2 forcing mechanism theory. The warmists have assumed any and all warming observed is due to the increase in atmospheric CO2.

There is in the paleo climate record cycles of warming and cooling of high latitude regions in the Northern hemisphere that correlate with solar magnetic cycle changes.

Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley's paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif

The following is another paper that notes that high latitude warming and cooling correlates with solar magnetic cycle length with a lag time of roughly one solar cycle.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256

Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles.

The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10 to 12 years.
These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5 ±2C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009 to 2020) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6 C.

William: Latitude and longitude of Svalbard (Longyearbyen)
78.2167° N, 15.6333° E Svalbard Longyearbyen, Coordinates

William: Based on observations the sun appears now to be rapidly moving towards a Maunder minimum.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png

The following are three papers that predicted that the sun would be moving towards a Maunder minimum.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD....34.0603S

Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?
...The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a "Maunder" type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/

Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion, Rhodes W. Fairbridge and James H. Shirley, January 1987
..... The progression of the inertial orientation parameter is controlled by the 900-yr great inequality of the motion of Jupiter and Saturn, while the precessional rotation parameter is linked with the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion previously identified by Jose (1965). A new prolonged minimum of solar activity may be imminent.

http://www.ann-geophys.net/20/115/2002/angeo-20-115-2002.pdf

..The 2400-year cycle in atmospheric radiocarbon concentration: bispectrum of 14C data over the last 8000 years..."

Link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/18/remarkable-correlation-of-arctic-sea-ice-to-solar-cycle-length/#more-90136


PS 2: RELEVANT STOFF OM ANTARKTIS OG SOLSYKLUSER

Joe d'Aleo har en interessant sak her: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Solar_Changes_and_the_Climate.pdf

Se også her, der et snev effekt av vulkanisme også diskuteres (relevansen av vulkansk aktivitet er jo VIRKELIG et varmt tema om dagen):
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog

Her sies det interessant nok (ifm. havsykluser) at "We are now back in a cold multidecadal PDO".
En del interessante grafer og statistikker for de av oss som ser etter de store mønstre 

[Jostemikk]

Supert, Tele, og takk! Som du selv nevnte, dette er rent kjetteri:

The 'low frequency oscillation' that dominated the ice export through the Fram Strait as well as the extension of the sea-ice in the Greenland Sea and Davis Strait in the twentieth century may therefore be regarded as part of a pattern that has existed through at least four centuries. The pattern is a natural feature, related to varying solar activity. The considerations of the impact of natural sources of variability on arctic ice extent are of relevance for concerns that the current withdrawal of ice may entirely be due to human activity. Apparently, a considerable fraction of the current withdrawal could be a natural occurrence."

Jeg antar denne publikasjonen kom for sent med tanke på AR5, men AGW-presteskapet vil nok allikevel lyse forskerne i bann. Det blir flere og flere kjettere, og det er jo rent så lyset atter stiger over Mordorhimmelen.

Har ikke rukket å lese litteraturlista du la ut, men mener bestemt å huske tidligere forskning som har pekt på selve isdriften gjennom Framstredet som proxy for store, naturlige variasjoner. Dette med lengden på solsyklusene er interessant, men noe jeg dessverre har tittet for lite på.

[Bebben]

Hehe, Tele måtte gi tapt for klimaabstinensen... det er bra Tele!

Jeg minner om at sørafrikanske forskere (blant andre Will Alexander) i 50 år har koblet hydrologiske sykluser til solsyklusene, til dels med vellykkede prognoser i form av å kunne forutsi tørke osv. Men denne forskningstradisjonen er ganske enkelt blitt ignorert, i likhet med alt annet som kan tenkes å innebære en redusert rolle for menneskehetens industri og framskritt med tilhørende energikonsum. Men som vi vet, masse "vanlig" forskning ligger der og venter på å bli gjenoppdaget. Og det blir den nok.