Forståelsen av Sol-klima-mekanismer

[ebye]

Temperaturen i debatten er noe dempet på ABCNyheter og Dagsavisen Nye meninger. Fullt navn fører tilsynelatende til færre Forumtroll - og takk for det! Her er noen eksempler

http://www.abcnyheter.no/meninger/borger/2012/05/06/grenseloes-klimadebatt

http://www.abcnyheter.no/meninger/borger/2012/05/11/kommentar-nye-feil-i-klimadebatten

Det virker ikke som Prestrud har den største støtten i folket, se kommentarene.

http://www.dagsavisen.no/nyemeninger/alle_meninger/cat1002/subcat1024/thread246310/#post_246310   

Her er det også gode kommentarer. Litt trolling tåles!

[Jostemikk]

Ifølge NASA og Space.com puster atmosfæren i takt med sprellene sola finner på, og dette kan ha influens på både atmosfærestørrelse og klima.

NASA - SABER Reveals the Upper Atmosphere's "Breathing" Pattern, In Rhythm With the Sun

Space.com - Earth's Atmosphere "Breathes" More Rapidly Than Thought

Atmosfæren løfter selv på lokket og puffer overskuddsvarme ut i verdensrommet? Denne forskningen ble publisert for sent til AR4, men jeg regner med at den kommer med i AR5...

[Okular]

Atmosfæren løfter selv på lokket og puffer overskuddsvarme ut i verdensrommet? Denne forskningen ble publisert for sent til AR4, men jeg regner med at den kommer med i AR5...

Ja, helt sikkert.

[jarlgeir]

Kommer neppe med i neste AR.

Det går da ikke an å ta med noe som så tvil om den galopperende menneskeskapte katastrofale oppvarmingen forårsaket av CO2.

Bare vent og se.

[Okular]

jarlgeir, jeg tok for gitt at Jostemikk var ironisk. Ergo, jeg fulgte opp. Burde ha slengt på en smiley, kanskje ...

[Jostemikk]

Fra min side var de få ordene fulladet med ironi.

[Amatør1]

En interessant presentasjon av Leif Svalgaard m/fl

What is Wrong with the Group Sunspot Number and How to Fix it
Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University (with help from many people)
2 March, 2012

Abstract
We have identified the flaw in Hoyt & Schatten'sconstruction of the Group Sunspot Number (GSN). We demonstrate how a correct GSN can be constructed using only the Hoyt & Schatten raw data without recourse to other proxies. The new GSN agrees substantially with the Wolf Sunspot number, resolving the long-standing discrepancy between the two series. Modeling based on the old GSN of solar activity and derived TSI and open flux values are thus invalidated. This will have significant impact on the Sun-climate debate and on solar cycle prediction and statistics.

Kilder
http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home
http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Presentations_2

[ConTrari]

Tallbloke har et oppslag om Erl Happs klimateori, som kan være morsomt å studere:

"The polar circulation injects ozone into the high latitude lower atmosphere. With little water vapor the atmosphere at high latitudes possess few of the properties of the low or mid latitude troposphere. It is this perturbation in ozone content affecting the weight of the atmospheric column (and surface pressure) that changes the wind, the cloud and surface temperature on the inter-annual, decadal and centennial time scales. It does this by changing the concentration of the one greenhouse gas that is beyond the influence of man. The presence of absence of ozone in the cloud zone is a matter for the sun and the atmosphere in a complex dance that challenges our imagination. It is the electromagnetic influence of the sun, depending upon plasma density within the neutral atmosphere that initiates a redistribution of the atmosphere and starts a process that includes a strong feedback mechanism.

The feedback mechanism is in turn dependent on the night jet and surface pressure. It is the activity of the sun that determines the chemical constitution of mesosphere air that is drawn into the tenuous upper atmosphere over the poles. It is the sun that ultimately controls this circulation. The Earth system greatly amplifies the tiny stimulus that the sun applies to the tenuous upper atmosphere."

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/06/12/erl-happ-climate-changes-oh-so-naturally/

[Telehiv]

Jeg har sett litt på IPCCs fremdeles gjeldende påstand om solas lave betydning for klodens oppvarming og klima. Er det ikke utrolig at denne åpenbare grove feilen får fortsette å leve sitt liv i enkelte fagmiljøer? Men de kan jo ikke innrømme sola en større betydning, eller så ramler jo korthuset sammen.

Når en ser på illustrasjonen i AR4 (s.94) av drivhuseffekten så lyser det motbeviste rangeringer av hele figuren:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-faqs.pdf

[Bebben]

Bare en liten hilsen fra Nordpolen på denne høstjevndag...

Legg merke til albedoendringene.

[BorisA]

Bare en liten hilsen fra Nordpolen på denne høstjevndag...

Legg merke til albedoendringene.

Jøss!
Har du vært på Nordpolen i dag?
Hvordan var været?

[Bebben]

Bare en liten hilsen fra Nordpolen på denne høstjevndag...

Legg merke til albedoendringene.

Jøss!
Har du vært på Nordpolen i dag?
Hvordan var været?

Vet ikke Boris, det var mørkt.

[Amatør1]

Her er en interessant artikkel om Sol-klima-mekanismer, riktignok for Mars, men det gir oss jo en referanse som kan være nyttig. Som kjent er Mars' bane-eksentrisitet vesentlig større enn Jordas, og rotasjonsaksens helning varierer også mer. Forøvrig er det store likheter mellom Jorda og Mars, rotasjonsaksenes helning i forhold til ekliptikken er for tiden sammenlignbar, og Mars-døgnet (en "Sol") er bare ca en halvtime lenger en jordas. Året, derimot er omtrent dobbelt så langt som Jordas, da Mars befinner seg lengre fra Sola.


Fra Niels Bohr institute

Mars's dramatic climate variations are driven by the Sun

"On Mars's poles there are ice caps of ice and dust with layers that reflect to past climate variations on Mars. Researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute have related the layers in the ice cap on Mars's north pole to variations in solar insolation on Mars, thus established the first dated climate history for Mars, where ice and dust accumulation has been driven by variations in insolation. The results are published in the scientific journal, Icarus.


The ice caps on Mars's poles are kilometres thick and composed of ice and dust. There are layers in the ice caps, which can be seen in cliffs and valley slopes and we have known about these layers for decades, since the first satellite images came back from Mars. The layers are believed to reflect past climate on Mars, in the same way that the Earth's climate history can be read by analysing ice cores from the ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica.

Solar insolation on Mars has varied dramatically over time, mainly due to large variations in the tilt of Mars's rotational axis (obliquity) and this led to dramatic climate variations on Mars.

[...]"



Apropos:

For den som er interessert i bilder fra Mars, så lastes det daglig ned bilder fra Mars Science Laboratory her.


Se forøvrig denne fantastiske videoen som er re-konstruert i ettertid basert på enkeltbilder tatt fra "Mars Descent Imager", et kamera plassert under roveren, pekende nedover.

I første fase av filmen henger Curiosity i en diger fallskjerm, men faller med supersonisk hastighet pga. den tynne atmosfæren (nesten ren CO2!). Det første vi ser er varmeskjoldet som kobles fra og faller ned. Deretter "dingler" vi under fallskjermen en stund mens bakken kommer nærmere. På et tidspunkt kobles fallskjermen fra, og bremseraketter tar over og fører oss i "powered flight" ned til bakken. Fantastiske greier.

http://www.youtube.com/v/Esj5juUzhpU?version=3&hl=nb_NO

[Amatør1]

Jeg kom over et veldig interessant kommentar-innlegg på en WUWT-tråd som omhandler solaktiviteten, men der kommentaren diskuterer klima-effekter på jorda, så det passer her.

WUWT-tråden er denne
February solar data shows the Sun to still be slumping – but NASA says 'twin peaks' may happen

Kommentaren av William Astley gjengis nesten i sin helhet:

The following is an alternative prediction for solar magnetic cycle 24 based on a physical solar model and a physical explanation of what caused past cyclic climate change, past abrupt climate change, and the glacial/interglacial cycle.

There is obviously a physical explanation for the glacial/interglacial cycle. This is a proxy record of how the planet's climate has cycled for the last 5 million years. The glacial/interglacial cycle is now roughly 100,000 years long with a long glacial period of 85,000 to 90,000 years and a short interglacial period of 10,000 to 12,000 years. The paleorecord indicates interglacial periods end abruptly. There is currently no hypothesis that can physically explain abrupt climate change or the glacial/interglacial cycle. The appeal to a super high amplification factor which would enable a small forcing change such as the amount of solar insolation at N65 to trigger the glacial/interglacial period was made in an attempt to explain what the past record. Current analysis and observation indicates however that the planet resists forcing changes by increasing or decreasing planetary clouds in the tropics, which is negative feedback rather than positive (amplification) feedback.



Solar observations indicate solar magnetic cycle 24 is unusual, a special cycle, a prediction of how solar cycle 24 will unfold cannot therefore be based on observations of recent solar magnetic cycles. Solar cycle 24 appears to be the special once in 1450 year or 8000 year solar magnetic cycles that cause (assuming I understand the climate forcing mechanisms and solar magnetic cycle changes causes the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, the Heinrich cycle, and the glacial/interglacial cycle). The Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycle has a periodicity 1450 years or 1000 years and the Heinrich climate cycle has a periodicity of 6000 years to 8000 years.

In the later part of the twentieth century the solar magnetic cycle, based on cosmogenic isotope analysis, was at its highest activity level and the longest high activity level in 11,000 years.

http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf
Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years
Here we report a reconstruction of the sunspot number covering the past 11,400years, based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. We combine physics-based models for each of the processes connecting the radiocarbon concentration with sunspot number. According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago. We find that during the past 11,400 years the Sun spent only of the order of 10% of the time at a similarly high level of magnetic activity and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data2.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data3.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data4.html

Last Heinrich Event – Younger Dryas Abrupt Cooling Event
The Younger Dryas is one of the most well-known examples of abrupt change. About 14,500 years ago, the Earth's climate began to shift from a cold glacial world to a warmer interglacial state. Partway through this transition, temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere suddenly (William: With 70% of the Younger Dryas cooling occurring in a decade. One of the unexplained paleoclimate puzzles is what is physically capable of cooling the earth so rapidly. A massive forcing change is required and a forcing change that over rides the planetary temperature regulating mechanism which is to increase or decrease clouds in tropics is required) returned to near-glacial conditions (Figure 6). This near-glacial period is called the Younger Dryas, named after a flower (Dryas octopetala) that grows in cold conditions and became common in Europe during this time. The end of the Younger Dryas, about 11,500 years ago, was particularly abrupt. In Greenland, temperatures rose 10° C (18° F) in a decade (Figure 6; Cuffey and Clow, 1997).

This article hypothesizes that Younger Dryas abrupt climate change has caused by an interruption to the North Atlantic drift current. A series of papers in the last 10 years indicate the cooling due to a complete interruption of the North Atlantic drift current is orders of magnitude too small to explain the Younger Dryas cooling and that the interruption to the North Atlantic drift current occurred a 1000 years before the Younger Dryas cooling event.

http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/id.999,y.0,no.,content.true,page.1,css.print/issue.aspx
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090513130942.htm
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/Gulf.pdf

As Livingston and Penn noted the magnetic field strength of newly formed sun spots is decaying linearly. The sunspots are formed from magnetic ropes that are formed at the solar tachocline (the tachocline is the thin layer that separates the solar convection zone from the solar radiative zone.) The magnetic field strength of newly formed sunspots can only decay linearly if the magnetic ropes that are formed at the tachocline and rise up to form sunspots are decaying linearly. (The observation that the magnetic field strength of individual sunspots is decaying linearly supports the assertion that sunspots are formed from magnetic ropes that are created at the tachocline.) The magnetic ropes that rise up through the convection zone require a minimum field strength to avoid being torn apart by turbulence in the convection zone. As the magnetic field strength of the magnetic ropes continues to decline the turbulence in the convection zone is tearing the magnetic ropes apart. The solar cycle 24 sunspot groups are observed to made up of many short lived tiny sunspots, which are referred to as spores.
As the solar magnetic cycle was at its highest activity in 11,000 years in the last 70 years and there are D-O cycles and Heinrich event cycles in the paleo record, if the sun caused the past climate cycles and as the solar magnetic field strength of individual sunspots is decaying linearly, assuming the past climate cycles were caused by the sun and the sun is entering the special cycle that cause climate cycles (we have already observed planetary warming, the warming however has stalled which cannot be explained the AGW hypothesis) the following a prediction for solar cycle 24.



If solar magnetic cycle is the special solar cycle that is hypothesized to cause Heinrich events, rather than the solar cycle that causes the D-O cycle which is a Maunder minimum type cycle, the solar magnetic cycle will be terminated and will not be physically capable or restarting via the normal mechanism that creates the magnetic ropes at the tachocline and that are then released to rise up to the surface of the sun. (The magnetic rope mechanism requires the residual solar magnetic fields from past cycle sunspots as a seed to form new powerful magnetic ropes. It appears based on observations solar magnetic cycle 24 sunspots are now too small and do not have sufficient field strength to survive the trip down through the convection zone to the tachocline. The number of sunspots and the lifetime of sunspot groups will continue to decline. The sun will be spotless in roughly 12 months. A spotless sun in the middle of solar magnetic cycle is anomalous as the normal solar magnetic cycle has a gradual rather than an abrupt end.

If solar observations in the next 12 months support the above prediction that solar cycle 24 is the special solar cycle that causes a Heinrich cyclic event rather than the type of solar magnetic cycle that causes a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, I can provide more details concerning what to expect next.

[Jostemikk]

Det er visst ikke bare på Røros permafrosten kommer til å feste taket nå for tiden. Jeg tenker mer og mer på historien som fortelles i Hva isen fortalte oss. Skiftene skjer svært brått, og naturen selv kan kaste oss ut i det fullstendige kaos på få år.

Mange har forsøkt å forklare hva som var årsaken til Yngre Dryas, og i vår gale verden der mainstream "forskere" har tvunget en hel verden til å tro at CO2 er eneste varierende temperaturdriver, har mange geologer lagt hele sin akademiske karriere i potten ved å påstå meteornedslag, mens andre har gått for plutselig ferskvannsutkomme fra Den store sjøen (Nord-Amerika da dammen brast). Den skulle visstnok via sin forrykkelse av saltinnholdet i havet ha forstyrret hele sirkulasjonsmønsteret i Nord-Atlanteren. Ifølge sitatet over kunne dette tvilsomt ha vært nok.

Det virker mer og mer som hvis all klimakunnskapen fantes i en appelsin, så har forskerne flere års arbeide foran seg før de forstår halvparten av det som skjer i den første millimeteren av skallet. "Mainstream" har ikke en gang kommet så langt.

William Astley er ikke den eneste som har sagt at solaktivitet/magnetisme/global temperatur er på sitt høyeste rett før en ny istid. For noen år siden leste jeg en omtale av en russisk publikasjon. Jeg har forsøkt å finne igjen denne, men dessverre uten hell. Kanskje noen kan være til hjelp?