Solheim et als siste arbeid med solsykluser spår snarlig (meget) kaldere Arktis

[Telehiv]

Som kjent har professor Jan-Erik Solheim og to andre forskere nylig publisert paperet "Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures" med resultater basert på at man bruker solsykluser til å forutsi klima.

Dette er nå bl.a. kommentert på What's up i svært positive ordelag: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/16/polar-amplification-works-both-ways/#more-53159

Vi merker oss at Solheim et al spår en meget kaldere nær framtid i Arktis:

"We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–‐20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈6°C."

Gjesteskribenten David Archibald kommenterer dette slik:

"A 6°C temperature decrease in under ten years from the present day!
This is significant at two levels. Firstly, it is going to get really cold very soon. This predicted cooling is calculated to have a 95% confidence level. Secondly, it gives the sceptic community a climate forecast that is based on physical evidence, with a statistician signing off. When the predictions of these three wise Norwegian are borne out, that is going to be a big thing."

[seoto]

Flott at du kommenterer den
Har allerede lagt ut link på vår link-side.

[Telehiv]

Supert, seoto!

Denne artikkelen tror jeg kan bli begynnelsen på at den etablerte klimamakt må begynne å hensynta alternative tilnærmelser (egentlig ikke alternative, men den type høyst vanlig vitenskapelig tilnærmelse som rådet før "den nye Mann-vitenskap" overtak både bane og dommerfløyte).

Det er bare max 9 år (vi vil nok se trenden lenge før) å vente på at disse prediksjonene kan konkluderes for. De er forøvrig helt på linje med de gamle nordområde originaldataene for naturlig variasjon vi fikk tilgang til før 1998 da historieomskrivningene startet for alvor, så jeg er rimelig trygg på at vi kan løfte glasset for at de nye og kalde "gode, gamle dager" er tilbake igjen senest i 2020 også i Arktis -  de er jo allerede tydelig på vei tilbake lenger sør på nordkalotten

 

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... så jeg er rimelig trygg på at vi kan løfte glasset for de nye og kalde "gode, gamle dager" senest i 2020 

I de kalde "gode, gamle dager" hendte det at vi hadde vidunderlig fine somre. Noen av de beste jeg husker er fra den "kalde" tiden, men brrrrrrrr for noen vintre vi hadde!

[ebye]

Flott at du kommenterer den
Har allerede lagt ut link på vår link-side.

Ja, dette er intet mindre enn imponerende seoto.    Jeg snakket med en av forfatterne i går, og fikk nyheten om at paperet var "acceptet." Og når jeg så forteller midtveis i dag at paperet ligger hos oss allerede, så lurte han på hvilken elektronisk jungeltelegraf vi hadde? 

Og jeg anbefaler Klimaforskning som oppholdssted for de som vil søke reell kunnskap om klima. Mange av de jeg når kjenner Aftenposten Debatt, så det er ikke vanskelig å anbefale et hyggelig oppholdssted! 

Der skulle vi ha vøri Karl, og der er vi.

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så lurte han på hvilken elektronisk jungeltelegraf vi hadde?

Utrolig hva man kan finne på Internett! 
Jeg fant artikkelen omtalt på WUWT.

[Jostemikk]

Dette er karer som er skikkelig i farta. Flott at vi får linker her, og flott at det ble godt mottatt på WUWT. Det er et par stykker der som er meget interesserte og kunnskapsrike om koblingen mellom sola og klimavariasjoner i Arktis.

[ebye]

så lurte han på hvilken elektronisk jungeltelegraf vi hadde?

Utrolig hva man kan finne på Internett! 
Jeg fant artikkelen omtalt på WUWT.

Jo, jo seoto, men infoen skal håndteres og sorteres. Jeg har lenge spøkt med:

"Det er stor trafikk, du er nr. 100 i køen, og rykker stadig bakover."

Slik ser jeg på klimasakssorteringsarbeidet her! Med jevne mellomrom kommer det viktigere nyheter.

[Telehiv]

På nettsiden
http://www.icecap.us/
er nå utlagt en meget interessant oppsummering av global klimautvikling iht. de 33 år med satelittmålinger, kommentert av bl.a. Christy og Spencer. Konklusjonen er at fratrukket angitte vulkanutbrudd i perioden har global temperatur knapt steget, samt at vi også får bekreftet at Antarktis har blitt kaldere i perioden - dvs. akkurat den forventede motfasen til Arktis som bl.a. undertegnede mener å ha sporet i historiske kilder i flere sammenhenger over flere sykluser de siste 200 år. 

Artikkelen er ikke uten videre lett å finne nedover sidene, så jeg tillater meg å legge den ut i sin helhet her (jeg har rød-merket noen sentrale punkt):


Dec 16, 2011

Global temperature record reaches one-third century

The end of November 2011 completes 33 years of satellite-based global temperature data, according to John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Globally averaged, Earth�s atmosphere has warmed about 0.45 Celsius (about 0.82 F) during the almost one-third of a century that sensors aboard NOAA and NASA satellites have measured the temperature of oxygen molecules in the air.

This is at the lower end of computer model projections of how much the atmosphere should have warmed due to the effects of extra greenhouse gases since the first Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) went into service in Earth orbit in late November 1978, according to satellite data processed and archived at UAHuntsville's ESSC.

"While 0.45 degrees C of warming is noticeable in climate terms, it isn�t obvious that it represents an impending disaster," said Christy. "The climate models produce some aspects of the weather reasonably well, but they have yet to demonstrate an ability to confidently predict climate change in upper air temperatures."

The atmosphere has warmed over most of the Earth's surface during the satellite era. Only portions of the Antarctic, two areas off the southwestern coast of South America, and a small region south of Hawaii have cooled. On average, the South Pole region has cooled by about 0.05 C per decade, or 0.16 C (0.30 F) in 33 years. The globe�s fastest cooling region is in the central Antarctic south of MacKenzie Bay and the Amery Ice Shelf. Temperatures in that region have cooled by an annual average of about 2.36 C (4.25 F).

The warming trend generally increases as you go north. The Southern Hemisphere warmed 0.26 C (0.46 F) in 33 years while the Northern Hemisphere (including the continental U.S.) warmed by an average of 0.65 C (1.17 F).

The greatest warming has been in the Arctic. Temperatures in the atmosphere above the Arctic Ocean warmed by an average of 1.75 C (3.15 F) in 33 years. The fastest warming spot is in the Davis Strait, between the easternmost point on Baffin Island and Greenland. Temperatures there have warmed 2.89 C (about 5.2 F).

While Earth's climate has warmed in the last 33 years, the climb has been irregular. There was little or no warming for the first 19 years of satellite data.  Clear net warming did not occur until the El Ni�o Pacific Ocean "warming event of the century" in late 1997.  Since that upward jump, there has been little or no additional warming.

"Part of the upward trend is due to low temperatures early in the satellite record caused by a pair of major volcanic eruptions," Christy said. "Because those eruptions pull temperatures down in the first part of the record, they tilt the trend upward later in the record."

Christy and other UAHuntsville scientists have calculated the cooling effect caused by the eruptions of Mexico's El Chichon volcano in 1982 and the Mt. Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines in 1991. When that cooling is subtracted, the long-term warming effect is reduced to 0.09 C (0.16 F) per decade, well below computer model estimates of how much global warming should have occurred.

Although volcanoes are a natural force, eruptions powerful enough to affect global climate are rare and their timing is random. Since that timing has a significant impact on the long-term climate trend (almost as much as the cooling itself), it makes sense to take their chaotic effect out of the calculations so the underlying climate trend can be more reliably estimated.

What it doesn't do is tell scientists how much of the remaining warming is due to natural climate cycles (not including volcanoes) versus humanity's carbon dioxide emissions enhancing Earth's natural greenhouse effect.

"That is the Holy Grail of climatology," said Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in the ESSC, a former NASA scientist and Christy's partner in the satellite thermometer project for more than 20 years. "How much of that underlying trend is due to greenhouse gases? While many scientists believe it is almost entirely due to humans, that view cannot be proved scientifically."

When the first MSU went into orbit in 1978, it wasn�t designed for monitoring long-term changes in the climate. Instead, it was built to give meteorologists two temperature readings a day over about 96 percent of the planet to provide input into computerized weather prediction models, the forerunners of climate models.

"All of the satellite instruments but one were designed to measure day-to-day weather changes, not long-term climate," said Spencer. "It has been a challenge to make the necessary corrections to the data so we can use the instruments for long-term climate monitoring."

While the satellite data record is shorter than the surface thermometer record, it has several strengths. It has the greatest global coverage: With 96 percent coverage of the globe (except for small areas around the north and south poles), the satellite sensors cover more than twice as much of Earth�s surface as do thermometers.

It is also less likely than surface-based thermometers to be influenced by local development, Spencer said.  Urbanization typically contributes to local warming due to the asphalt effect, when paving and buildings absorb and convert into heat sunlight that would naturally have been reflected back into space.

While that heat can raise temperatures recorded by thermometers at surface weather stations, the effect on the atmosphere is so local and so shallow that it dissipates before it can heat the deep atmosphere above it. As a result, satellite measurements have shown no indication of an urban contamination effect, Spencer said.

Another strength is that the microwave sensors gather temperature data for a deep layer of the atmosphere, rather than just at the surface.

"What we look at is a bulk measurement of the atmosphere's heat content," Christy said. "That is the physical quantity you want to measure to best monitor changes in the climate.  Plus, it's consistent. You can take a single satellite 'thermometer' and measure the temperature of the whole Earth, rather than just at a single spot."

While the satellite dataset has its strengths, unlike thermometers and temperature probes used on weather balloons the Microwave Sounding Units were new, largely untested tools when they were put into space. Spencer, Christy and other scientists have had to develop small corrections that they use every month to reduce errors caused by the satellites losing altitude or drifting in their orbits.

While year-to-year temperature variations measured by the satellite sensors closely match those measured by both surface thermometers and weather balloons, it is the long-term warming trend on which the satellites and the surface thermometers disagree, Spencer said, with the surface warming faster than the deep layer of the atmosphere.

If both instruments are accurate, that means something unexpected is happening in the atmosphere.

"The satellites should have shown more deep-atmosphere warming than the surface, not less" he said. "Whatever warming or cooling there is should be magnified with height. We believe this is telling us something significant about exactly why the climate system has not warmed as much as expected in recent decades."


Publication of the November 2011 Global Temperature Report was delayed by several days due to a ground station malfunction.

Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line here. (link virker ikke foreløpig?)

The processed temperature data is available on-line here. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, Christy and Spencer use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.

The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a "public" computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.

Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.

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Til Telehivs artikkel over:

Det kan kanskje være lettere å finne linken på denne siden, der den ikke forsvinner så fort:
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate

Dessuten er tekstkonverteringen i orden på denne siden.

Fin artikkel! De kan ikke leve på løgner for alltid ...