UNESCO 1973: Artikler om klima før FN ble klimakorrupt

[Telehiv]

I stedet for å skrive en lang artikkel om dette som sliter dere ut på forhånd; skjenk dere en kopp kaffe og les gjennom hva verden - gjennom UNESCOs øyne - trodde om klima for nesten 40 år siden:

http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0007/000748/074891eo.pdf

Håper lesingen avføder mange gode refleksjoner etterpå!


PS: Hvis det kan gi et bedre bilde av hva som omtales i artikkelsamlingen, kan vi sitere en omtale på icecap kalt "What the real scientists said about the 1970s", av Paul Homewood (jfr. tidligere henvisning til "Not a lot of people know that" på http://www.icecap.us/):


It is well known that there were many articles in the likes of Time Magazine and Newsweek back in the 70's, which sensationalised the ice age scare. Warmists tend to write off this episode as just media hype.  But what were the scientists saying at the time?

HH Lamb was one of the leading climate scientists at the time and founded the Climatic Research Unit at the UEA. In 1973 he wrote an article, "Is The Earth's Climate Changing?", for the UNESCO magazine, "The Courier". It was a special edition devoted to climate issues and in it, HH Lamb covered a number of issues.

Early 20th Century Warming
Computations in the United States from surface air temperature observations all over the world show that from the 1880s to some time after 1940 the Earth's climate was becoming generally warmer. The global warming over those years amounted to about half a degree Centigrade, but in the Arctic it was much stronger and amounted to several degrees between 1920 and 1940.

The ice on the Arctic seas decreased in extent by about 10 per cent and decreased in general thickness by about one third. Glaciers in all parts of the world were receding, opening up new pastures and land for cultivation.

The greater warmth increased the length of the growing season by two to three weeks in England. The wild flora and forests, the cultivation of various crops, and the ranges of seasonal migration of birds and fish, all spread to new regions under the increasingly genial conditions.

Moreover, the longest temperature records available in various northern countries from the early eighteenth century (in England from the late seventeenth century) showed that the previous warming had a very long history, traceable from the beginning of the record through various shorter-term ups and downs. This meant that the warming began before the industrial revolution and could not be altogether attributable to the effects of human activity

Post 1940 Cooling
For the past 25 to 30 years the Earth has been getting progressively cooler again. Around 1960 the cooling was particularly sharp. And there is by now widespread evidence of a corresponding reverse in the ranges of birds and fish and the success of crops and forest trees near the poleward and altitudinal limits.

The decline of prevailing temperatures since about 1945 appears to be the longest-continued downward trend since temperature records began. [This period of cooling lasted about 30 years, about 5 years longer than the recent period of warming].[/i]

Effects of The Cooling
It is perhaps here that things become most interesting. According to Lamb, among the effects of the changes of climate in recent years, which have given cause for concern are:-

- a renewed increase (especially since 1961) of the Arctic sea ice, which has created difficulties on the northern sea routes in Soviet and Canadian Arctic waters and has produced some bad seasons on the coasts of Iceland and Greenland.
- a substantial rise, also since 1961, in the levels of the great lakes in eastern equatorial Africa and, more recently, of the Great Lakes of North America.
some 200-year extremes of temperature in individual cold winters in various parts of the northern hemisphere (and probably also in the warmth of summer in 1972 in northern European U.S.S.R. and Finland).

The most serious effects, however, have probably been the long-continued droughts and deficient rainfalls in various parts of the world associated with shifts of the world's anticyclone belts.

The subtropical anticyclones associated with the desert belt were displaced somewhat towards the equator, and the equatorial rainbelt seems to have been restricted in the range of its seasonal migrations. In consequence, rainfall increased in Africa close to the equator, causing the lakes to rise, while drought began to afflict places nearer the fringe of the desert belt, no longer reliably visited in summer by "equatorial" rains.

Rainfall at eight places in northern India, the Sudan and at 16 to 20N in west Africa averaged 45 per cent less in the years 1968-72 than in the 1950′s. In all these areas people have been driven from their homes by the continued failure of the rains, and in the Cape Verde Islands at the same latitude in the Atlantic an emergency was declared in 1972 because of the last five years of drought.

There are indications that corresponding shifts have taken place in the anticyclone and cyclone belts of the southern hemisphere and that the droughts affecting Zambia, Rhodesia and parts of the Transvaal in recent years are essentially part of the same phenomenon. [An indication that Southern Hemisphere temperatures were also falling].

At the same time, the shifting positions from month to month, and from one year to the next, occupied by the main anticyclone centres in this belt have introduced an abnormal variability of temperature and precipitation. A similar development may explain the sequence of droughts and floods in different parts of Australia in 1972-3.

Drought over Africa
In another article in this issue of The Courier, Jean Dresch, Professor of Geography at the University of Paris and a leading authority on the world's arid zones, writes in more detail about the African drought that Lamb touched on.

Famine threatens millions of villagers and herdsmen with their decimated flocks, today forced into an unprecedented migration in search of food and water, in all the West African countries to the south of the Sahara, from Mauritania to the Sudan. Its cause is drought, a prolonged decline in rainfall that has been recorded as far as central Asia, throughout the periphery of the arid zone, extending from the tropical desert of the Sahara to the continental deserts of temperate Eurasia.

A sequence of dry years is remembered in 1910-1914, when they caused a real famine. 1941 and 1942 were no better; and dry years have been succeeding one another since 1968, whereas the decade 1951-1960 was wetter. But there is no cyclical rhythm from which to predict disasters.

Drought and Floods
Jerome Namias, "one of America's leading weather scientists", comments in another article, "Long Range Forecasting of Drought and Floods":-

We are all aware of the ravages of natural events of the recent past, the devastating Russian drought of 1972; current drought in sub-Saharan countries, especially Mali, Mauritania and the Upper Volta, which seems to have persisted and become aggravated in the last few years; the occasional seasonal droughts in parts of India and Australia and the "Seca" or" drought which occurs in some years in northeast Brazil.

On the wet side, we have the eastern U.S.A. floods in June, 1972, associated, in part, with hurricane Agnes the most costly storm in U.S. history, and we remember the 1966 tragic flood of Florence. These are but a sample of spectacular events from the climatological record.

From time immemorial there have been occasions when nature "goes on a rampage" and makes it appear that the climate is changing. Why does nature do this? Unfortunately man does not yet fully understand the causes of these events, and therefore he is unable to predict them reliably. [He obviously did not know about the all powerful influence of a minor trace gas].

Final Word
Were they worried about what the future would bring? They might not have talked in the apocalyptic language of Time, but there was certainly concern. I will leave the final comment to HH Lamb:-

All these events have raised an anxious demand for ultra-long-range forecasting of climate, which calls for intensified effort towards understanding of the atmosphere (and its interactions with the ocean) and for further reconstruction of the facts of the past climatic record.

[seoto]

Takk, Tele Det er godt at vi fremdeles har tilgang til historisk informasjon - og at noen finner den!

Det er utrolig mye informasjon å finne innenfor FN-systemets egne nettsider.

[ebye]

Takk for den historie-linken, Tele.

Og seoto, kan det være slik at klimahistoriestoffet ikke er re-readable - for dem?   

[Jostemikk]

Takk skal du ha, Tele! Leser PDF-en nå, og noterte meg at de sendte opp værsatellitt allerede i 1960.

The launching of the first
weather satellite TIROS I in April 1960
surprisingly quickly showed that the
latest technological devices could be
used profitably by the meteorologist.

Dette er interessant i forbindelse med noe av det jeg har nevnt i forbindelse med is i Arktis. Folk flest later til å tro at satellittæraen begynte i 1979.

[seoto]

Det er en veldig interessant link Tele la ut fra:

The UNESCO Courier
August-September 1973

På side 16 i pdf-filen (side 17 i den originale utgaven) har
Hubert H. Lamb, grunnleggeren av CRU, en interessant artikkel:

IS THE EARTH's CLIMATE CHANGING?
For the past 30 years the temperature of our planet has been steadily dropping.

Computations in the United States from surface air temperature observations all over the world show that from the 1880s to some time after 1940 the Earth's climate was becoming generally warmer. The global warming over those years amounted to about half a degree Centigrade, but in the Arctic it was much stronger and amounted to several degrees between 1920 and 1940.

The ice on the Arctic seas decreased in extent by about 10 per cent and decreased in general thickness by about one third. Glaciers in all parts of the world were receding, opening up new pastures and land for cultivation, while the melt-water swelled the flow of the mountain rivers in spring and summer.

The greater warmth increased the length of the growing season by two to three weeks in England. The wild flora and forests, the cultivation of various crops, and the ranges of seasonal migration of birds and fish, all spread to new regions under the increasingly genial conditions.

Once the climatic trend was noticed, speculation began about the causes and possible future consequences. Some of the first scientific work on the subject, published in the 1950s, attributed the warming to Man's output of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, etc.), which increased the quantity of this gas in the atmosphere by almost 10 per cent in the first half of this century.

It soon became clear, however, that carbon dioxide was not the whole story. Despite increasing production of this gas, with more and more industrialization and the ever-increasing burning of oil and other fuels, the temperature trend reversed.

This meant that the warming began before the industrial revolution and could not be altogether attributable to the effects of human activity.

Thus, quite recent climatic trends have forced us to recognize that climatic changes and fluctuations are forever going on, even in our own times, and that we have to reckon with changes brought about both by natural causes and the actions of Man. The decline of prevailing temperatures since about 1945 appears to be the longest-continued downward trend since temperature records began.

The most serious effects, however, have probably been the long-continued droughts and deficient rainfalls in various parts of the world associated with shifts of the world's anticyclone belts.

(Sånn går det når det blir kaldere.)

Rainfall at eight places in northern India, the Sudan and at 16 to 20°N in west Africa averaged 45 per cent less in the years 1968-72 than in the 1950's. In all these areas people have been driven from their homes by the continued failure of the rains, and in the Cape Verde Islands at the same latitude in the Atlantic an emergency was declared in 1972 because of the last five years of drought.

(Det er vel dette vi ser skje igjen, siden det har blitt kaldere igjen de siste årene.)

[Telehiv]

Seoto, du er spot on!

Jeg syns det er herlig å finne slikt historisk materiale, der de samme miljøene sier det motsatte av det de trodde før - bare fordi de er blitt instruert om det....for nå vet de bedre, men nå gjelder det å holde kjeft....

[seoto]

Jeg blir bare mer og mer glad i slike historiske rapporter - spesielt når det gjelder folk som snur med vær og vind

Beklager at jeg ikke så tillegget i din åpningsartikkel før nå. Det var ikke meningen å doble opp effekten - men kanskje det ikke er så dumt allikevel?

[Telehiv]

seoto,

det var utmerket at du fulgte opp min ingress med å vise til konkrete eksempler på hva man kan se av baklengse hallingkast fra den gang til nå 

UNESCO-samlingen er jo så avslørende ved nærmere lesning at jeg bare MÅTTE legge den ut til dere 

[ebye]

Postmann Pat må ut en liten tur igjen.

Fra radioen lyder: Humlum's flukt.   

[Josik]

Jeg velger å legge denne linken her.

Nok en artikkel fra før FN's klimapanel korrupterte klimavitenskapen.

Fra Steven Goddard: http://www.real-science.com/global-cooling-explained

"Climate Change, Chilling Possibilities"

Link til pdf: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/download/id/37739/name/CHILLING_POSSIBILITIES