Forståelsen av Sol-klima-mekanismer

[Spiren]

Kan anbefales

Har nettopp sett 1 del av programmet JORDAS KRETSLØP 1:3 Br. dokumentarserie.

Programmet kan svært anbefales, jeg vil mene, utsendelsen vil være interessant, for flere av Dere. For ikke at sige jeg føler meg rimelig sikker.

1 del av programmet JORDAS KRETSLØP blir sendt i reprise i morgen formiddag kl.11.05 NRK1

[Jostemikk]

Kan anbefales

Har nettopp sett 1 del av programmet JORDAS KRETSLØP 1:3 Br. dokumentarserie.

Programmet kan svært anbefales, jeg vil mene, utsendelsen vil være interessant, for flere av Dere. For ikke at sige jeg føler meg rimelig sikker.

1 del av programmet JORDAS KRETSLØP blir sendt i reprise i morgen formiddag kl.11.05 NRK1

Flott at du minnet oss om dette, Spiren! Jeg så akkurat første del, og ble meget positivt overrasket. Håper mange klarte å gjette på jetstrømmen da programlederen pekte på en faktor som kunne forrykke grensen mellom varm tropisk luft og kald polarfront over Storbritannia.

[Obelix]

Jeg også så programmet. Bra program! Og helt utrolig egentlig at et slikt program slapp gjennom MSM-nåløyet.
For programmet fokuserte på naturlige hendelser, som jordens rotasjon om egen akse og at den har en helning på ca. 23 grader.

Ikke mye tull om klimagasser der nei 

Kan det sees på som et tegn i tiden at klimabløffen er i ferd med å dø sakte ut???

[Jostemikk]

Kan det sees på som et tegn i tiden at klimabløffen er i ferd med å dø sakte ut???

Nå er jeg alltid pessimist til det motsatte er bevist, men vi får krysse fingrene, Obelix!

[Amatør1]

Kan det sees på som et tegn i tiden at klimabløffen er i ferd med å dø sakte ut???

Nå er jeg alltid pessimist til det motsatte er bevist, men vi får krysse fingrene, Obelix!

Hvis du krysser fingrene, da er du optimist 

[Jostemikk]

Kan det sees på som et tegn i tiden at klimabløffen er i ferd med å dø sakte ut???

Nå er jeg alltid pessimist til det motsatte er bevist, men vi får krysse fingrene, Obelix!

Hvis du krysser fingrene, da er du optimist 

Kort innpå i et svakt øyeblikk, Amatør1.

[ebye]

Jeg også så programmet. Bra program! Og helt utrolig egentlig at et slikt program slapp gjennom MSM-nåløyet.
For programmet fokuserte på naturlige hendelser, som jordens rotasjon om egen akse og at den har en helning på ca. 23 grader.

Ikke mye tull om klimagasser der nei 

Kan det sees på som et tegn i tiden at klimabløffen er i ferd med å dø sakte ut???

Jeg tipper at de ikke skjønner at temaet kan ha noe med klima å gjøre i det hele tatt, de i MSM-NRK.         

[BorisA]

Takk for tipset.
Har akkurat vært inne på TV'en og gjort klar for opptak av hele serien.

[Jostemikk]

Solar Activity and Climate - Hiroko Miyahara, The University of Tokyo from Kavli Frontiers of Science on Vimeo.

Solar Activity and Climate
Hiroko Miyahara, The University of Tokyo

Abstract:
1. Introduction
Instrumentally measured or reconstructed past climate changes often show positive correlation with solar activity at the wide range of time scales, such as from monthly (Takahashi et al., 2010) to millennial (Bond et al., 2001). However, the mechanisms of their linkage have not been well understood. The possible solar-related parameters that can drive climate change are; total solar irradiance (TSI), solar ultra violet (UV), solar wind (SW) and the galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). The galactic cosmic rays are attenuated by changing solar magnetic field in the heliosphere; the region where the wind of solar plasma and magnetic filed expend. The observed flux of GCRs shows inverse correlation to solar activity. It is known that the change in the cosmic ray flux results in the change in the ionization rate in the atmosphere. It is suggested that it may cause the change in cloud amount.

2. Variation of Galactic Cosmic Rays during the Maunder Minimum
It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar-related parameters above, since most of them are more or less synchronized for the instrumental period. However, the variation of solar radiation and GCRs may be different at the Maunder Minimum (AD1645-1715). The Maunder Minimum is a period of sunspot absence lasted about 70 years. The Sun has shown periodic variation with ~11-year period since the beginning of the 18th century. However, the sunspots had almost disappeared and apparent ~11-year cycles had been lost during the Maunder Minimum. It means that solar activity had been extraordinarily weak and that the environment of heliosphere had been different from today. We found that the variation of GCRs was very unique during the time. The variation of GCRs has been revealed by the measurements of cosmic-ray induced radio isotopes such as carbon-14 and beryllium-10 in tree rings or ice cores. The content of radio isotopes have shown that solar cycle had been kept during the long-lasting sunspot absence, but with ~14-year period. It has been also revealed that the 22-year cycle; the cycle of periodic reversal of solar dipole magnetic field, had been also kept but with ~28-year period and had been amplified during the time. The polarity of the Sun reverses at the maxima of solar cycles, and thus holds ~22-year period. The ~22-year cycle is not observed in the changes in solar radiations; however it appears in the variation of GCRs consisting of mainly changed particles. The changes in the environment of heliosphere had probably resulted in the amplification of the 22-year cycle in GCRs.

3. Variation of climate and its relation to Galactic Cosmic Rays
We have found that reconstructed climate data show unique variations similar to that of GCRs during the Maunder Minimum. For example, the northern hemispheric temperatures are significantly dependent on the direction of solar dipole magnetic field. At the phases of negative polarity of dipole magnetic field, when GCRs show anomalous increase, we observe colder climate. The dependence of climate change on solar dipole magnetic field results in the manifestation of 22-year cycle in climate change. The cause of decadal to multi-decadal climate changes had not been well understood, however, our study suggests that GCRs may be the playing important role in climate change at those time scales.

Conclusion
More detailed studies are needed to reveal the mechanisms of solar influence on climate change; however, our study has suggested that not only solar irradiative outputs but also magnetic property is playing important role in climate change possibly through changing the flux of GCRs. The mechanisms how the cosmic rays change the cloud property should be clarified in the future studies.

References
G. Bond et al., Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene, Science, 7, 294, 2130, 2001.

H. Miyahara, Y. Yokoyama & K. Masuda, Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 272, 290-295, 2008.

Y. Takahashi, Y. Okazaki, M. Sato, H. Miyahara, K. Sakanoi, and P. K. Hong, 27-day variation in cloud amount and relationship to the solar cycle, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1577-1584, 2010.

http://vimeo.com/30119927

[P. Tuvnes]

Bedre korrelasjon sol - global temperatur, se:
http://sait.oat.ts.astro.it/MmSAI/76/PDF/969.pdf

Det er opplagt at solen virker på mange måter.  Disse forskerne har funnet at en geomagnetisk index passer bedre enn bare solflekk-antallet.

Once again about global warming
and solar activity
K. Georgieva1, C. Bianchi2 and B. Kirov1
1 Solar-Terrestrial influences Laboratory, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bl.3
Acad.G.Bonchev str. 1113, Sofia, Bulgaria
2 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy
e-mail: Bianchi@ingv.it
Abstract. Solar activity, together with human activity, is considered a possible factor for
the global warming observed in the last century. However, in the last decades solar activity
has remained more or less constant while surface air temperature has continued to increase,
which is interpreted as an evidence that in this period human activity is the main factor for
global warming.We show that the index commonly used for quantifying long-term changes
in solar activity, the sunspot number, accounts for only one part of solar activity and using
this index leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity in the global warming
in the recent decades. A more suitable index is the geomagnetic activity which reflects all
solar activity, and it is highly correlated to global temperature variations in the whole period
for which we have data.

[ebye]

Interessant artikkel, Tuvnes.

Den er snart 10 år gammel, kjenner du til om det er nyere "resultater" som støtter opp om dette? Kanskje jeg finner noe hos The Three Wise Norwegians? Jeg må ta en ny kikk på de paperne.     

[Amatør1]

Ikke et nytt paper, men likevel svært aktuelt

Geophysical Research Letters

Anomalously low solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance and thermospheric density during solar minimum
Stanley C. Solomon, Thomas N. Woods,Leonid V. Didkovsky,John T. Emmert, Liying Qian

Abstract:
[1] Solar activity during 2007–2009 was very low, and during this protracted solar minimum period, the terrestrial thermosphere was cooler and lower in density than expected. Measurements from instruments on the SOHO and TIMED spacecraft, and by suborbital rocket flights, indicate that solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance levels were lower than they were during the previous solar minimum. Analysis of atmospheric drag on satellite orbits indicate that the thermosphere was lower in density, and therefore cooler, and than at any time since the beginning of the space age. However, secular change due to increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which cool the upper atmosphere, also plays a role in thermospheric climate. Simulations by the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model are compared to thermospheric density measurements, yielding evidence that the primary cause of the low thermospheric density was the unusually low level of solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance.

Omtale av paperet fra University Of Colorado:

Shrinking atmosphere linked to low solar radiation

Large changes in the sun's energy output may drive unexpectedly dramatic fluctuations in Earth's outer atmosphere, new research indicates. A study published today links a recent, temporary shrinking of a high atmospheric layer with a sharp drop in the sun's ultraviolet radiation levels.

The research, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado at Boulder, indicates that the sun's magnetic cycle, which produces differing numbers of sunspots over an approximately 11-year cycle, may vary more than previously thought.

[...]

The results showed the thermosphere cooling in 2008 by 41 kelvins (about 74 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to 1996, with just 2 K attributable to the carbon dioxide increase. The results also showed the thermosphere's density decreasing by 31 percent with just 3 percent attributable to carbon dioxide. The results closely approximated the 30 percent reduction in density indicated by measurements of satellite drag.

"It is now clear that the record low temperature and density were primarily caused by unusually low levels of solar radiation at the extreme-ultraviolet level," Solomon said.

Woods said the research indicates that the sun could be going through a period of relatively low activity, similar to periods in the early 19th and 20th centuries. This could mean that solar output may remain at a low level for the near future.

"If it is indeed similar to certain patterns in the past, then we expect to have low solar cycles for the next 10 to 30 years," Woods said.

[Jostemikk]

Dette er interessant på mange måter. Denne sommeren har det vært helt umulig å bli solbrent der jeg har oppholdt meg. Dette med EMR er litt av ei nøtt å knekke for både klimainteresserte og andre. Den krympende atmosfæren med redusert temperatur i øvre lag er også verdt å merke seg.

[Spiren]

Global Cooling: Is an Ice Age Coming?

It wasn't supposed to happen: a ship full of scientists and environmentalists sent to the Antarctic to find melting ice from global warming got stuck in frozen ice from fearsome cold.

Then, the rescue ship got stuck in the ice, too.

The climate is changing, but it's not changing the way climate change crowd predicted it would. Nature has made a mockery of global warming, so who are the real climate deniers?

Ice is not only growing in the South Pole, but in parts of the North Pole, too. And the coldest arctic temperatures in decades have descended upon North America.

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/healthscience/2014/January/Cover-Up-Mounting-Evidence-Belies-Global-Warming/

[seoto]

Før CO2-hysteriet oppsto, diskuterte man seriøst hvilken påvirkning sola hadde på vårt klima. Dette er en dokumentar som ble sendt på BBC2 i 1977, "The Sunspot Mystery", den gang også Stephen Schneider trodde solen hadde påvirkning.

Fra beskrivelsen:

"Publisert 31. jan. 2014
Consider this video as 'Electric Weather 101'. I found this program yesterday, Jan 30, 2014, and was very pleased how it provides a solid contextual foundation for videos I am making on the same subjects. At the time of release, I was a high school student. It's amazing how today's climate scientists have disregarded the sun-earth weather and climate connection that Dr. Stephen Schneider discussed in The Sunspot Mystery.

Somewhere along the way Dr. Schneider turned to atmospheric carbon dioxide as the driver for "climate change", and apparently ran with it until he passed away in 2010. I met him when I was an undergraduate engineering student about the year 1990, when he was promoting the AGW thesis, before it morphed into CAGW, and then later "climate change".

I wish he was still here to find out how he was right in the first place - it's the sun that controls weather and climate, not CO2.

What struck me was the enormous commitment researchers and scientists had in documenting solar activity throughout the ages. While a dated program, I hope viewers find this gem as enjoyable and informative as I did."